A Fortune headline annoyed me into writing my first white paper. Nine versions later, here it is. I read a Fortune piece last week calling the Sun Belt boom dead and the Midwest the quiet winner. Ivan Barratt, June 14. Good headline. "I told you so" energy from the patient-capital crowd. I disagreed enough to do something I've never done before: write a white paper. I figured it'd take a weekend. I'm now on version nine. Or ten. I genuinely lost count somewhere around the fourth time FRED handed me a chart that killed an argument I'd already written three paragraphs around. Here's what I found. The headline is half right and badly timed. The easy money on "boring is beautiful" is already made. And the real Sun Belt risk quietly moved from cranes to carrying costs. Supply clears. Insurance doesn't. 22 pages. Cap-rate spreads, the 2026 maturity wall, negative leverage since 2022, and the insurance line nobody underwrites until it eats their NOI. Sourced from FRED, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, RealPage, Yardi, and Trepp, because I didn't want to argue with a man's data without my own data. The honest hole in my own thesis: this wall has been a slow leak, not a dam break. Lenders keep extending instead of foreclosing. So it's a patience trade, and patience trades are exactly where I've been wrong before. The thing few tell you about going out on a limb in public: that's exactly where you find the holes in your own logic. I found plenty. I'm sure you'll find more. If you do, the errors are mine alone. The limb was my idea. It's attached. Swipe through. Tell me where I'm wrong.