Writing · Pricing / Revenue Management

2026-07-03
Apartment sales in Atlanta fell 77% in two years. $19.3 billion in 2021 down to $4.5 billion in 2023. And prices are down. The blended headline only shows 6%, but that number lies. Buyers traded up to nicer buildings and pulled the average up with them. Break it out by class. A and B are off about 19% from the 2022 peak. The tired C-class value-add stuff is down 28%. Start with cap rates. Look at that spike in 2021, a record $19.3 billion. Everybody piled in at the top at cap rates in the low 4s. That same building trades at a 5.5 cap today. On flat income, that alone is a 25% haircut. They counted on rent growth to bail them out. It never came. Then the debt, and this is where it gets ugly. Most of these peak buyers didn't lock in cheap fixed money. They bought on floating-rate bridge loans to juice the returns. Their rate floats on an index that went from a quarter point in 2021 to north of 5 today. Run that math. A loan that penciled at 4% is costing 8 now. They're not sitting on a cheap mortgage waiting it out. They're underwater and bleeding, chasing rescue capital and loan mods just to survive. They can't sell. The price won't cover the loan. So why hasn't it all hit the tape? Extend and pretend. The bank doesn't want the keys, because taking them means booking the loss and owning the mess. So they extend the loan, and then they extend it again, and everybody acts like the value's still there. That's how you get a slow leak instead of a crash. Volume freezes, prices grind down, and the pain gets smeared across years instead of one bad quarter. The hold data shows it. Owners who did sell used to hold 33 months. Now it's 59. Quick flips fell to 11%, the lowest in the whole run. They're not holding because they want to. They're holding because selling means eating the loss. So when does it break? When the extending stops. The loans come due. The caps expire. The fund runs out of life and has to hand the money back. That's your seller. The one who ran out of road. The train already left the tracks. It's just falling in slow motion. What are you seeing, extend or exit?
Pricing / Revenue Management

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