Writing ยท Pricing / Revenue Management
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I had a 756-bed student property in Auburn falling behind on pre-leasing. So I doubled our Google Ads budget.
Leads went up 28%.
The leases didn't follow, so I dug in. My team knew I watched the closing ratio, so they were marking real inquiries as "not a lead." Smaller denominator, prettier ratio, same pile of signed leases.
Well, shocking.
The trick is simple. 100 leads, 10 leases, 10%. Reclassify 50 of those leads as "unqualified" and you're at 20%. Your ratio doubled. Your rent roll didn't move.
Some cleanup is honest. A duplicate, a vendor, a resident calling about a leak, none of those are prospects. The trouble starts when the person doing the cleanup gets paid on the ratio.
And there's no referee. I went looking for an industry standard. Vendor targets run 10% to 30% lead-to-lease, and the rule of thumb you hear most is 10:4:1. Ten leads, four tours, one lease. One marketing firm wrote this spring that a universal benchmark can't exist, because the industry doesn't agree on what a lead is. They showed it with their own numbers. A client that counts only qualified leads converts about 1 in 9. Under the broader definitions most teams use, they often see 1 in 25. Both can be accurate.
Take 300 units at a 50% renewal rate. That's 150 move-outs a year. About 12.5 a month you have to backfill just to stand still.
At 10% conversion, you need 125 leads a month.
At 20%, you need 63.
At 30%, the top of the vendor ranges I found, you need 42.
Now say you only get 30 leads. To hold occupancy, your team has to close 42% of everything that calls, clicks, or walks in. That's above every vendor benchmark I found. The best closer in the state can't sign a prospect who never showed up.
Leads are the gas.
Closing ratio is the engine. No engine runs on an empty tank.
The back door counts too. Push renewals from 50% to 60% and move-outs drop to 10 a month. Now those same 30 leads need a 33% close. Still a stretch, but a shorter one.
In Auburn we fixed the tracking and replaced the leasing manager. We leased up. Then I cut ad spend and still hit target.
So before you celebrate the ratio, check the denominator. Letting the leasing team decide what counts as a lead is letting the student grade his own test.
When was the last time you pulled up the "not a lead" pile in your leasing funnel and read it? You might be surprised what you find.