Writing · Pricing / Revenue Management

2026-09-08
NOI growth in a real estate deal comes from exactly two places. The question is which one you are relying on. Bold claim. Hear me out. The property across the street from ours charged a $350 community fee. Our recent purchase has always been charged $125. The comp did not raise its fee that year. It had been charging $350 for years, printed on an application packet anybody could have picked up. The prior owners were just not collecting it. That gap is $225, and across 576 beds, it is $129,600 a year. That is what reading a competitor's paperwork was worth. That is alpha. You can control it or create it. It's obvious, though sometimes buried in the details. The ideas come from Michael Jensen in 1968. Working off Sharpe's capital asset pricing model, he wanted to know whether a fund manager had any skill at all or was just riding the market. Beta was the market. Alpha was what was left after you subtracted it. He ran 115 mutual funds through the math and found that, on average, nothing was left. 🤯 Beta in our business is the tide that lifts or sinks all boats. Owning the building should get you beta, provided your team is doing the basics. Rents went up 6% in town, and yours went up 6%. You cashed a check the market wrote. Alpha is a gap you went and found and executed, and it would have been sitting there whether rents rose, fell, or did nothing at all. So the examples matter less than the habit. For example: Your two-bedroom on the pool rents the same as the two-bedroom staring at the dumpster. Same square footage. Nobody ever built the premium into the matrix. Storage units sitting empty. Parking spots nobody sold. A utility rebill rate set in 2019 that never moved, and two meters that quit reporting. One property is paying a vendor 20% more than another property for identical scope, inside the same portfolio, in the same year. Two invoices, never once laid side by side. That is three out of a few hundred. Go down your general ledger, line by line, top to bottom, and ask the same question at every row: is this number the market's doing, or mine? Most rows will have an answer. Some will be small. Great CRE investors are obsessed with the details, or they employ people who are just as fanatical about them. You project 8% rent growth. Ask how much of it is you. Beta only becomes clear in the rearview mirror. You can pull CoStar and project the submarket, and that projection will be wrong, and nobody can tell you by how much yet. What the market actually handed you shows up a year later, after the bonuses are already paid. Do the subtraction anyway, late and imperfect. Revenue growth minus the submarket. Expense growth minus the benchmark. Whatever survives, you can put your name on. A strong market never proves your team is good. It just makes it very hard to prove they are not.
Pricing / Revenue Management

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