Writing · Pricing / Revenue Management
The first time you buy an apartment property, you might trust the trailing twelve. The second time, maybe you trust the rent roll. By the third or fourth deal, you stop trusting either one and start asking for the bank statements, the deposit reconciliation, and the lease addenda.
Most of what’s wrong in a seller’s numbers isn’t fraud. It’s smoothing. Concessions moved off the rent ledger. Prepaid rent recognized as income. Deposits pulled from escrow to clean up bad debt. Each game catchable. Each one still working on buyers who don’t reconcile.
The smoothing playbook isn’t unique to apartments. In 2019 the SEC charged Brixmor Property Group, one of the largest owners of open-air shopping centers in the country, with running the same instinct on a public-market scale. The CEO, CFO, and two other senior accounting executives resigned the same morning in February 2016. The stock dropped about 20% intraday. The audit committee took two and a half years to catch it.
The lesson the buyer should take from Brixmor is not that public REITs are crooked. It’s that the metric a buyer relies on most is the metric a seller has the most reason to manage